Virginia Job Openings Decreased By 21,000 in August

RICHMOND— The Virginia Employment Commission announced today that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August 2022 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reports Virginia job openings retreated from July’s near-record highs of 339,000 to 318,000. Quits also declined by 7,000 to 108,000 for the month of August. 

According to the most recent BLS JOLTS survey data, the estimated number of August job openings nationwide decreased by more than a million—one of the larger one-month declines in the history of the survey, but the decline was milder in Virginia. BLS JOLTS data provides information on all pieces that go into the net change in the number of jobs. These components include job openings, hires, layoffs, voluntary quits, and other job separations (which includes retirements and worker deaths). Putting those components together reveals the overall change in payroll employment. JOLTS data is seasonally adjusted and describes conditions on the last business day of the month. Current month’s data are preliminary and the prior month’s data have been revised.

The number of August 2022 job openings in Virginia was 318,000 and was a 21,000 decrease from July’s 2022’s revised figure, reflecting a pull-back seen across the country. The number of U.S. job openings decreased to 10.1 million on the last business day of August 2022. The largest decreases in job openings were in health care and social assistance (-236,000), other services (-183,000), and retail trade (-143,000). The Virginia job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of total employment) fell a half of a percentage point and returned to a more typical level seen in 2022. In August, the U.S. job openings rate was little changed at 6.2%. The job openings rate decreased in all establishment size classes except those with 9 or less employees, which changed little.

In August 2022, there was less than one unemployed worker per two job openings in the Commonwealth, holding steady at 0.4 over the previous few months. This period marked the lowest rates since January 2001, when BLS began collecting the data. In Virginia, the unemployed per job opening ratio (sometimes called the ‘job seekers ratio’) peaked at 4.4 unemployed per job opening in February 2010 during the Great Recession, while the number of unemployed workers per job opening stood at 3.3 in April 2020 during the height of pandemic employment impacts. Across the U.S., there were 10.1 million U.S. job openings and 6.0 million unemployed people. This yielded a ratio of unemployed people to job openings of 0.6 for August, compared with 0.5 in July. The ratio of unemployed people per job opening has been below 1.0 since July 2021. The August 2022 figure marks the first increase in the ratio since April 2020, when it reached 4.9.  The number of unemployed people per job opening reached its highest level of 6.4 in October of 2009, at the height of the Great Recession.

The number of hires in Virginia fell by 14,000 to 171,000 in August, which was nearly 8% lower over the month but 16% higher than five years earlier. JOLTS defines hires as all additions to the payroll during the month. The series low of 77,000 was set in April 2020, while the high of 265,000 was set in June of that year. In August, the number of U.S. hires was little changed at 6.3 million, and the rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. Hires significantly decreased in federal government (-8,000). The number of hires increased in 6 states, decreased in 3 states, and was little changed in 41 states and the District of Columbia in August. The largest increases in the hires level occurred in Maryland (+25,000), Alaska (+15,000), and Idaho (+10,000). The decreases occurred in Arizona (-31,000), Connecticut (-26,000), and New Mexico (-7,000). Nationally, the number of hires was little changed over the month. In Virginia, the hires rate fell to 4.2% from July’s revised 4.5% rate. The national hires rate was unchanged over the month. In August, hires rates increased in 6 states, decreased in 3 states, and were little changed in 41 states and the District of Columbia. The largest increases in hires rates occurred in Alaska (+4.7 percentage points) and Wyoming (+1.8 points) as well as in Delaware and Idaho (+1.3 points each). The decreases occurred in Connecticut   (-1.6 percentage points), Arizona (-1.0 point), and New Mexico (-0.9 point).

In August 2022, the ‘annual fill’ rate (the ratio of ‘this month’ hires to ’last month’ job openings, over the year) held steady at 0.9. The U.S. annual fill rate rose to 1.0. This indicates a trend in recent months towards less difficulty in filling positions when compared to a year earlier. The fill rate is a measure used to evaluate how labor markets differ in the pace that job openings are filled. An annual fill rate near or above 1.0 can indicate that employers are growing more efficient at filling job openings. On the other hand, an annual fill rate of less than 1.0 can indicate a tighter labor market, with employers having greater difficulty filling job openings compared to a year earlier. Going back to 2001, the highest annual fill rate occurred during June 2020 because, after the nationwide shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, employers across the country sought to quickly hire for vacated positions. The lowest fill rate in Virginia occurred in June 2021. During that time, there were many factors that hindered the filling of vacant positions by employers, such as health concerns, employee skills, and childcare needs, but the biggest factor was the comparison against the historic re-hiring hike the year before.

The hires-per-job-openings (HPJO) ratio was little-changed in August, equal to the 0.6 rate nationwide. This measure shows the rate of hiring compared to open jobs and is a proxy for time to fill positions. The rate has hovered around one hire for every two job openings in Virginia and, over five years, the ability to hire for job openings has fallen by nearly a third nationwide and in the Commonwealth.

In August, the number of total separations in Virginia decreased by 5,000 to 155,000 from July’s revised 160,000 estimate. The number and rate of total separations nationwide were little changed at 6.0 million and 3.9%, respectively in August. The Virginia total separations rate was little changed at 3.8%, about the same as the 3.9% rate nationwide. In August, the number (six million) and rate of total separations nationwide (6.0) were little changed. In August, U.S. total separations rates increased in 8 states, decreased in 3 states, and were little changed in 39 states and the District of Columbia. The largest increases in total separations rates occurred in Wyoming (+2.1 percentage points), Arkansas (+1.0 point), and Oklahoma (+0.8 point). Decreases occurred in Idaho (-1.1 percentage points), North Dakota (-0.7 point), and Connecticut (-0.6 point).

An estimated 108,000 workers quit jobs from Virginia employers in August. The number of quits fell by 7,000 from July’s revised figure of 115,000 but was up two percent from a year earlier. The number of quits was down significantly from the record-breaking month of December 2021 when 136,000 Virginia workers quit their jobs. Quits, a component of total separations, are voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Across the nation in August, the number of quits was little changed at 4.2 million, and the rate was unchanged at 2.7 percent. Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+119,000) but decreased in professional and business services (-94,000). The largest increases in the quits level occurred in Texas (+71,000), Florida (+39,000), and New Jersey (+16,000). The number of quits can be seen as a leading indicator of wage trends in that it includes workers who quit to move to another job.

The quits rate in the Commonwealth decreased by 0.2 of a percentage point to 2.6% and remained at the elevated levels seen over the last twelve months. The quits rate nationwide was unchanged at 2.7%. In August, quits rates increased in eight states, decreased in five states, and were little changed in 37 states and the District of Columbia.

The number of layoffs and discharges in Virginia increased by 1,000 to 37,000 in August 2022 from July’s revised 36,000 figure. This was flat growth over the year, but nearly a third lower than five years before in 2018. In August, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges nationwide were little changed at 1.5 million and 1.0 percent, respectively. The largest increases in the layoffs and discharges level occurred in California (+58,000), Georgia (+19,000), and South Carolina (+8,000). The largest decreases in the layoffs and discharges level occurred in New Jersey (-22,000), Ohio (-20,000), and North Carolina (-17,000). Layoffs and discharges are countercyclical, which means that layoffs typically increase during economic contractions and decrease during economic expansions.

The August 2022 churn rate (the sum of the hires rate and the total separations rate) returned to 8.0 from July’s revised 8.4 rate in Virginia, indicating continued elevated velocity of movement into and out of jobs. Nationwide, the August 2022 churn rate was little changed over the month and equaled Virginia’s. An elevated churn rate indicates a labor market with a high hires rate, a high separations rate, or both. It can signify that workers are moving more frequently into and out of jobs in the labor market. Conversely, a low churn rate indicates a labor market with a low hires rate, a low separations rate, or both. Labor markets with the most churn may also have more seasonal employment patterns not fully captured by seasonal adjustment factors, which can lead to more frequent job-to-job movement.

BLS JOLTS figures for August may indicate that 2022’s tight labor market eased a bit, with retreats in both the number of job openings and quitting in the Commonwealth. U.S. job openings contracted more severely; by ten percent over the month. This result, when taken together with no hiring growth during that period, may imply that many of the lost job openings were not absent because they were filled, but were withdrawn by employers. Virginia’s drop was milder and it’s important to note that the decline came off of many months of highly elevated levels. The number of workers quitting their jobs did decrease in Virginia but that alone doesn’t provide much evidence that workers were less confident in their ability to get another, better job if they quit. Over 70% of total separations in August remained quits, which indicates continued worker confidence in their chances to find a better job. At the same time, hires continued to amply exceed the number of total separations. Despite concerns regarding the direction of the economy in August, layoffs and discharges remained low in the Commonwealth and nationwide.

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The Virginia Employment Commission plans to release the September 2022 analysis of the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for Virginia on Monday, November 21, 2022. The data for all states and the U.S. will be available on the BLS website JOLTS page, at https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. BLS is scheduled to release the September JOLTS data for states on Thursday, November 17, 2022.

Technical note: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) produces monthly data on U.S. and regional job openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations from a sample of approximately 21,000 establishments. As a supplement, BLS has begun publishing state estimates that provide monthly information that can be used to better understand the dynamic activity of businesses in state economies that leads to aggregate employment changes. For more information on the program’s concepts and methodology, see “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: Handbook of Methods (Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 13, 2020), https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/home.htm. For more information on BLS’ state JOLTS estimates, see https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jlt_statedata.htm.

Definitions of JOLTS terms*